Monday, December 15, 2003

Short Post
Have a few minutes between stuff. Noticed this yesterday, but rather than have it look like I was trying somehow to take away from the euphoria over Saddam's capture I decided to let it pass.

But Billmon over at The Whiskey Bar makes it easy to add a quick link:

(My Headline) Musharraf Survives Assassination Attempt

In the end, Musharraf's survival is probably a hell of a lot more important than the precise dimensions of Saddam's spider hole, or how many cavities they found when they examined his teeth. There already have been at least two attempts on the Pakistani dictator's life since he sided with the United States in the attack on Afghanistan, and much evidence of unrest and anger both within the Pakistani military, and even more so within the country's powerful security service, the ISI.

If Musharraf dies, all bets are off as to what happens in the world's only nuclear armed Islamic state. The possibilities begin with a dramatic increase in the power and influence of Pakistan's radical Islamist parties, go on to another border war with India, and get worse from there. If America thinks it has current problems in Iraq, imagine trying to subdue a nation of 150 million people, armed with medium-range nuclear missiles.

I would guess that destabilizing Pakistan, and potentially getting its hands on the country's nuclear arsenal, ranks first on Al Qaeda's "things to do" list -- ahead, even, of overthrowing the House of Saud. Short of that, anything that heightens tensions between Pakistan and India wopld also serve Al Qaeda's interests, both by creating yet another foreign policy crisis to distract the already overburdened (and under-talented) U.S. foreign policy team, and by further polarizing the world into Islam vs. the infidels -- Hindu as well as Judeo-Christian.


So, sure, enjoy the spectacle of Saddam, Homeless Shelter Edition. In a sense, this could be the best thing possible: in the initial phase of combat, I was worried that Hussein would somehow become lionized, particularly had he died in battle. Thank heavens that didn't happen. Instead, he'll be caged like an animal in a zoo--but without the open hours.

But, as always, this does NOT factor into the source of our troubles in the Middle East--namely, a clash between religious fundamentalism and secular values. Pakistan is sitting on a powder keg in this regard. Let's hope no one strikes a match.

And--if anyone was wondering if Saddam's capture would have an effect on the insurgency--click here. Yankeedoodle lists eight attacks that made the news--I wonder how many didn't...


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